The Captain Goes Down With the Ship

Coronavirus and Church Networks, Part 4: Key-Leader Bias and Board Groupthink

Between 6,000 and 10,000 churches in the U.S. are dying each year. That means around 100-200 churches will close this week. The pace will accelerate unless our congregations make some dramatic changes.

~Thom Rainer, LifeWay Facts & Trends, Jan 16, 2019

People in any organization are always attached to the obsolete—the things that should have worked but did not, the things that once were productive and no longer are.

~Peter Drucker

The other Jewish believers also started acting like cowards along with Peter; and even Barnabas was swept along by their cowardly action.

~Galations 2:13, GNT

“The captain goes down with the ship" is a maritime tradition that a sea captain holds ultimate responsibility for both the ship and everyone embarked on it. So, if the ship is in distress or is sinking, a courageous captain would forgo his own wellbeing and concentrate instead on saving all others onboard.

But what if the ship is sinking because of the captain? What if a ship is in obvious or desperate need of a course correction, but the captain is dead set on staying the course? What if the ship is in distress due to leadership from the top, or lack thereof?

In key-leader efforts to protect “their own” kingdom or what they view as “their own” ship, they are giving up a perfect opportunity to join God in his missional work around them.

This Coronavirus interruption is ultimately going to “force” churches and organizations to embrace a “new normal.” But any leadership change, especially at the top, that churches and networks needed to make even before COVID-19, is now the glaring issue facing boards and staff. Otherwise, the ship will run aground.

This pandemic provides a window of time motivating “course change” in ministry plans in a culture that was already changing well before the COVID-19 interruption. Well, actually, this Coronavirus crisis has caused a disruption. In many cases, denomination and church leadership itself was already in obvious need of a “course change,” but now it’s more of a desperate need. Some ships were already in distress before entering COVID-19 rough waters. And the captain, more often than you think, insists on staying the course even if it means going down with the ship . . . rather than retire, resign, be released, or in some cases, repent—which means to ”change course.”

I’m reminded of the tale of the self-important aircraft-carrier captain getting his well-earned comeuppance at the hands of a plain-speaking “subordinate” being bullied by this captain:

ACTUAL transcript of a US naval ship with Canadian authorities off the coast of Newfoundland in October, 1995. This radio conversation was released by the Chief of Naval Operations on 10-10-95.

Americans: “Please divert your course 15 degrees to the North to avoid a collision.”

Canadians: “Recommend you divert YOUR course 15 degrees to the South to avoid a collision.”

Americans: “This is the CAPTAIN of a US Navy ship. I say again, divert YOUR course.”

Canadians: “No, I say again, you divert YOUR course.”

Americans: “THIS IS THE AIRCRAFT CARRIER USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN, THE SECOND LARGEST SHIP IN THE UNITED STATES’ ATLANTIC FLEET. WE ARE ACCOMPANIED BY THREE DESTROYERS, THREE CRUISERS AND NUMEROUS SUPPORT VESSELS. I DEMAND THAT YOU CHANGE YOUR COURSE 15 DEGREES NORTH. THAT’S ONE-FIVE DEGREES NORTH, OR COUNTER MEASURES WILL BE UNDERTAKEN TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF THIS SHIP.”

Canadians: “This is a lighthouse. Your call.” After a long pause, “Hello?”

This illustrates a phenomenon known as plan continuation bias, also referred to as get-there-itis or press-on-itis. It’s an imprudent tendency toward persisting with a plan that is failing or bound to fail.

This is a hazardous danger for a captain of a ship on a sea course or a pilot of an aircraft on a flight plan that should be aborted. We could site numerous air crashes and fatal landing accidents, but here’s the story of one such sea captain that stuck with a planned course even when it was leading to a disaster.

The famous Torrey Canyon oil spill was one of the world's most serious ever. The supertanker SS Torrey Canyon ran aground on a reef off the coast of the United Kingdom, spilling millions of gallons of crude oil. It’s the tragic story of its captain who persisted with a risky course rather than accept a delay.

At the time, Torrey Canyon was the largest vessel ever to be wrecked, resulting in the world's worst oil spill. On her final voyage, this supertanker left a Kuwait refinery with a full cargo of crude oil in February of 1967. In March, following a navigational error, she struck rock on an English reef.

Notably, the situation was exacerbated by the captain’s vanity about his ship’s appearance. He needed to transfer cargo in order to even out the ship’s draft. This could have been done while underway, but might’ve spilled a little oil on the decks. The captain did not want to come into port with a sloppy ship, so he was rushing to make the transfer.

A denominational or ecclesial leader can be overly concerned with “how things look.” More importantly, a network or church leader certainly can suffer from press-on-to-get-there-itis with “their own” plans. If the primary director of an organization “persists with a risky course rather than accept a delay,” then planning fallacies never get dealt with.

Subsequently, the board can suffer from groupthink, an unwillingness to admit failure, or an aversion to loss of sunk costs. Therefore, plan continuation bias leads to the organization’s demise and “the captain goes down with the ship.”

Groupthink is a corresponding phenomenon that occurs within a group in which desires for harmony or conformity result in irrational or dysfunctional decision making (or lack thereof). The desire for cohesiveness, that may not even exist in the group, may produce a tendency among its members to agree at all costs to the organization. Then the group will attempt to minimize conflict and settle for consensus without full investigation or critical evaluation.

With groupthink, individuals often avoid raising controversial issues or alternative solutions. There is loss of individual creativity, uniqueness and independent thinking. The dysfunctional group dynamics of the in-group produces an illusion of invulnerability or an inflated certainty that the right decision has been made. Thus the in-group significantly overrates its own abilities in decision-making and significantly underrates the abilities of those who might offer opposing out-group viewpoints.

Groupthink can even produce dehumanizing actions against the out-group. Members can feel peer pressure to go along with the crowd in fear of rocking the boat. What will speaking up do to how their teammates perceive them? Group interactions tend to favor harmonious agreement. So, it can be a cause for concern when little to no new innovation or fresh debate for better policies, outcomes or restructuring are called to question (source: McLeod). 

At the least, one who dares speak up will live on and move forward without regret. And who knows, if voiced in time, the one who dares to point out that “the emperor has no clothes” may somehow turn the tide before its too late.

Much of the way a key-leader runs a church or organization today is indicative of plan continuation bias. Group members continue doing what they’ve done year after year, because it is too painful to change top leadership or even simply admit key-leader failure. It’s easier to blame the corporate articles or structure or whatever else will deflect from WHY ones would maintain longstanding loss and cost with so little return. But that is exactly what ones must do if they want to turn the ship around.

We always admire the brave actions of courageous leaders who finally admit any bias and examine assumptions in light of the mission of Jesus.

Such brave souls will ask, “Why was the church or organization operating with such a self-defeating leader and maybe even allowing unbiblical ways? Why were some key-leader decisions or practices never really challenged, investigated or adjudicated, even though they were ineffective, maybe unbiblical or even paralyzing to the church or organization?

Confronting bias or groupthink is a big step forward. Since change comes hard, courage is needed to do what must be done for the church or organization . . . more importantly, for Jesus and His mission.

C. S. Lewis put it this way:

There exists in every church something that sooner or later works against the very purpose for which it came into existence. So we must strive very hard, by the grace of God to keep the church focused on the mission that Christ originally gave to it.

I was recently intrigued by a quote from Fyodor Dostoyevsky. Writing during the times of the 1860s Russian Empire, he asked:

What makes a hero? Courage, strength, morality, withstanding adversity? Are these the traits that truly show and create a hero? . . . Who are these heroes and where do they come from? Are their origins in obscurity or in plain sight?

~Notes From Underground, 1864

Bonus poem to preview a future post, inspired by Jesus, who said:

"Stop making My Father's house a place of business.” Then His disciples remembered that it was written, “ZEAL (PASSION) FOR YOUR HOUSE WILL CONSUME ME.”

~John 2:16-17, NASB

Don’t Back Up, Don’t Back Down

Well, we make our home in an ol’ ranch town

Where ye hit it hard 'til the sun goes down

We grew up thinking that’s just how it was

‘Coz everyone else was raised just like us

Whether drenched in rain or scorched in the sun

It’s not quitting time 'til the job gets done

Out off old dirt roads, we learn to discern

To grasp what’s best, first unlearn then relearn

On a paved highway, less gets unraveled

But we’re sticking with the road less traveled

We keep moving when bad streaks roll around

Face fear; no reverse gear; no backing down

That's the way we roll; only way we run

We just can’t stop until justice is done

Only way we know, face what’s at the door

Dig deep, when feels like ye can't dig no more

All up in our grills, backs to the fences

We don’t care if the odds are against us

Take courage when points of testing come ‘round

Ye just don’t back up and ye don’t back down!